Resumo do Relatório
It’s In Da Price
(1 votes, average: 5,00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...
Given the ever-thicker curtain of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) and the swirling cross currents of economic data here in the US and elsewhere we continue to lean on the markets themselves to tell us what’s happening – the old adage of: let the market tell us rather than we try to tell the market what’s happening.
We think the stock market in particular is telling us quite a bit these days, information that can be boiled down to the vernacular saying that we choose for today’s Musings: it’s in da price. Today’s title came to me after yesterday’s close when I checked to see how the US regional banks had fared, using KRE as my proxy.
We do not have a position in the regionals in our Global Multi Asset (GMA) flagship model portfolio but we do hold XLF and EUFN. Yesterday was interesting because I had the opportunity on BTV’s The Open show to speak with host Lisa Abramowicz right at the 9:35 am slot; the pre open focus was on a regional bank, PACW, that was down 25% or so pre open. The chatter was about all regional banks and crisis and what does this mean for the broader market etc.
Asked for my take, I said that we are not concerned about systemic risk, that one could argue as we did in Firebreak that regional bank concerns would keep the Fed from overtightening and thus reduce the risk to the broader economy. We also argued that credit spreads (HY over FFR) were calm at 200 bps over vs 400-500 in systemic risk off moves, that XLF remains about the key $30-31 level, that the VIX & MOVE indices show no sign of unease and thus neither should we. We noted the same applies for the debt ceiling negotiations which we stated would be one of the last, best buying opportunities should there be a pullback related to worries about default which, notwithstanding some wingnuts in Congress, is highly unlikely. You can see my interview here – I come on at the 29 min mark. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-05-11/-bloomberg-the-open-full-show-05-11-23?sref=ftskAWJe
Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
Aviso legal
DISCLAIMER: This research report was prepared and distributed by the signatory Analyst for the original recipient only, pursuant to all the requirements defined in CVM Resolution N.20/21, with a view to providing information that may assist investors to make their own investment decisions, not representing any type of offer of or request for the purchase and/or sale of any product. Neither the Analysts nor OHMRESEARCH are responsible for the investment decisions and financial strategies, which should ultimately be made by the readers of the report. The products shown in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. Before any investment decision, investors should perform a suitability process with a reliable broker-dealer and confirm that the products presented are suitable for their investor profile. The profitability of financial products may fluctuate, and their price or value may increase or decrease in a short period of time. Previous results do not necessarily indicate future results. The reported profitability is stated before taxes. The information contained in this material is based on simulations and actual results may be significantly different.
The signatory of this report states that the recommendations reflect only his/her personal opinions and analyses, which have been produced entirely independently, and that OHMRESEARCH does not manage this content in any way. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without previous notice as a result of changes in market conditions. The Analyst responsible for the content of this report and for complying with CVM Resolution N. 20/21 is indicated above, and if more than one Analyst is indicated in the report, the analyst in charge will be the first accredited analyst to be mentioned in the report. The analysts registered with OHMRESEARCH must comply with all the rules defined in the Code of Conduct of the Association of Capital Markets Investment Analysts and Professionals (APIMEC) for Securities Analysts and the Policy of Conduct of Securities Analysts. Pursuant to article 21 of Resolution CVM N. 20/21, if an Analyst is in a situation that may affect the impartiality of the report or that may qualify as a conflict of interest, this should be reported in the “Conflicts of Interest” field herein.
The content of this report is the property of the signatory Analyst only, and may not be copied, reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, for/to third parties, without a previous written authorization from the Analyst. All information used in this document was obtained in public information from sources believed to be reliable. While all reasonable measures have been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not uncertain or misleading at the time of its posting, the Analyst is not accountable for the accuracy of the information shown in the report.
For further information, please refer to CVM Resolution nº 20 of 2021 and the APIMEC Code of Conduct for Securities Analysts. This report is intended only for the OHMRESEARCH subscriber that acquired it. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of the report or of any part hereof, in any way, may result in civil and criminal penalties, including the obligation to redress any and all losses and damages, in accordance with Law No. 9610/98 and other applicable legislation.
