Resumo do Relatório

It’s In Da Price

12/05/2023
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Emerging Markets Estados Unidos Estratégia Global Geopolitica Macro Internacional Macroeconomia

Given the ever-thicker curtain of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) and the swirling cross currents of economic data here in the US and elsewhere we continue to lean on the markets themselves to tell us what’s happening – the old adage of: let the market tell us rather than we try to tell the market what’s happening.

 

We think the stock market in particular is telling us quite a bit these days, information that can be boiled down to the vernacular saying that we choose for today’s Musings: it’s in da price. Today’s title came to me after yesterday’s close when I checked to see how the US regional banks had fared, using KRE as my proxy.

 

We do not have a position in the regionals in our Global Multi Asset (GMA) flagship model portfolio but we do hold XLF and EUFN. Yesterday was interesting because I had the opportunity on BTV’s The Open show to speak with host Lisa Abramowicz right at the 9:35 am slot; the pre open focus was on a regional bank, PACW, that was down 25% or so pre open. The chatter was about all regional banks and crisis and what does this mean for the broader market etc.

 

Asked for my take, I said that we are not concerned about systemic risk, that one could argue as we did in Firebreak  that regional bank concerns would keep the Fed from overtightening and thus reduce the risk to the broader economy. We also argued that credit spreads (HY over FFR) were calm at 200 bps over vs 400-500 in systemic risk off moves, that XLF remains about the key $30-31 level, that the VIX & MOVE indices show no sign of unease and thus neither should we. We noted the same applies for the debt ceiling negotiations which we stated would be one of the last, best buying opportunities should there be a pullback related to worries about default which, notwithstanding some wingnuts in Congress, is highly unlikely. You can see my interview here – I come on at the 29 min mark. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-05-11/-bloomberg-the-open-full-show-05-11-23?sref=ftskAWJe

Jay Pelosky

Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA

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