Resumo do Relatório
Friday Musings: If You Don’t Like the Weather ( Markets) Just Wait
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Its Spring in NYC and like the markets, the weather changes every day: it hit 70 degrees yesterday and Sunday’s low is forecast at 25 degrees. Investors have contemplated bubbles & bears, corrections and new ATHs from one week to the next.
By now one would have to be living, not on Mars, but on a planet even further away not to know that US inflation will pick up mechanically in coming months, that global growth will boom and the world’s Central Banks will welcome both while investors fret.
Asia, the Covid leader, sets the pace with the RBA providing aggressive forward guidance while the ECB announces further bond buying to keep rising rates from tightening financial conditions. Jay Powell is up next and expect him to push back against this narrative that Wall St and the Fed are too divergent in their US economic outlooks.
My point would be much should be in the price of both bonds and stocks, where the rotation from growth to value has been extreme, the fastest since the tech bust of 2000.I see this as very good news as the narrative has shifted from Bull to Bear without sinking the broad market and while fostering the shift to non US equity leadership.
Whats an investor to do? Its super easy to get chopped up if trading or freeze if allocating. We need to get used to this environment IMO. I expect to see secular bull and bear markets in equity and debt – something not seen in the US since the 1950s-60s. Expect more “pothole” 5% pullbacks as a result which are scary but impermanent & useful for positioning/allocating.
I see the opportunity set as expanding and continue to invest thematically along the clean energy, cyber and fintech/bank/crypto themes which I see as secular. Carbon and infrastructure are top of mind as is EM local debt, vastly oversold with the Brazilian Real close to 45% undervalued according to folks I respect. MXN has also been sold aggressively while China holds pride of place in EMLC.
Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
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