Steepening US Yield Curve Is a Harbinger of Inflation That’ll Oblige Fed to Tighten
The steepening yield curve reinforces our view that the US$900 billion stimulus enacted at end-2020 will largely close the US…
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27/02/2021
Prasenjit Basu
Delayed Inflation Risks to Be Re-Ignited by Biden Stimulus as Output Gap Closes
December economic pause was followed by a US$900 billion stimulus that will largely be spent in 1Q 2021. The output…
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23/02/2021
Prasenjit Basu
China Had a Great 2020, but OverCapacity Will Cause Headaches in 2021
Even in 2020, China’s M2 grew more than the US and EU; thus, despite a soaring trade surplus, foreign reserves…
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04/01/2021
Prasenjit Basu
2021 to Mark the Return of Inflation: Fed Hike by Mid-Year Implies Risk-Off by 2Q/21
With the output gap closing, and a big US$900 billion fiscal stimulus on the way, the 24% YoY pace of…
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22/12/2020
Prasenjit Basu
RCEP Is a Boon for Japan, China, Korea; Not so Much for ASEAN, ANZ
RCEP is a geopolitical coup for China, particularly because US allies Japan and South Korea (who were both prominent proponents…
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29/11/2020
Prasenjit Basu
There’s no global “Second Wave” of Covid, but Equities are very richly valued
There is no global “second wave” of Covid, but the Schiller CAPE ratio is at levels it has rarely exceeded…
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28/09/2020
Prasenjit Basu
Trump is not the Cause but an Effect of De-Globalization: No magical trade rebound if he loses
Between 1946 and 2011, global trade volumes typically grew at least 1.5-times the pace of global GDP growth, except during…
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11/09/2020
Prasenjit Basu
What a Biden Presidency will mean for the Economy and Markets
The key impact of a Biden presidency will be an initial sell-off in US equities, given that Biden has pledged…
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07/08/2020
Prasenjit Basu
China’s monetary insanity and its consequences: Global overcapacity and an investment drought
China’s money supply (M2) has expanded 45-fold in the past 24 years, the largest monetary expansion in human history. China’s…
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30/07/2020
Prasenjit Basu
