Relatórios

Steepening US Yield Curve Is a Harbinger of Inflation That’ll Oblige Fed to Tighten

The steepening yield curve reinforces our view that the US$900 billion stimulus enacted at end-2020 will largely close the US…

Nenhum comentário | 3 votos. média: 4,00 out of 53 votos. média: 4,00 out of 53 votos. média: 4,00 out of 53 votos. média: 4,00 out of 53 votos. média: 4,00 out of 5

27/02/2021

Prasenjit Basu

Delayed Inflation Risks to Be Re-Ignited by Biden Stimulus as Output Gap Closes

December economic pause was followed by a US$900 billion stimulus that will largely be spent in 1Q 2021. The output…

Nenhum comentário | 1 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 5

23/02/2021

Prasenjit Basu

China Had a Great 2020, but OverCapacity Will Cause Headaches in 2021

Even in 2020, China’s M2 grew more than the US and EU; thus, despite a soaring trade surplus, foreign reserves…

Asia China

Nenhum comentário | 3 votos. média: 4,67 out of 53 votos. média: 4,67 out of 53 votos. média: 4,67 out of 53 votos. média: 4,67 out of 53 votos. média: 4,67 out of 5

04/01/2021

Prasenjit Basu

2021 to Mark the Return of Inflation: Fed Hike by Mid-Year Implies Risk-Off by 2Q/21

With the output gap closing, and a big US$900 billion fiscal stimulus on the way, the 24% YoY pace of…

Nenhum comentário | 2 votos. média: 5,00 out of 52 votos. média: 5,00 out of 52 votos. média: 5,00 out of 52 votos. média: 5,00 out of 52 votos. média: 5,00 out of 5

22/12/2020

Prasenjit Basu

RCEP Is a Boon for Japan, China, Korea; Not so Much for ASEAN, ANZ

RCEP is a geopolitical coup for China, particularly because US allies Japan and South Korea (who were both prominent proponents…

Asia China Geopolitica Macroeconomia

Nenhum comentário | 1 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 5

29/11/2020

Prasenjit Basu

There’s no global “Second Wave” of Covid, but Equities are very richly valued

There is no global “second wave” of Covid, but the Schiller CAPE ratio is at levels it has rarely exceeded…

Macro Internacional Macroeconomia

Nenhum comentário | 5 votos. média: 4,80 out of 55 votos. média: 4,80 out of 55 votos. média: 4,80 out of 55 votos. média: 4,80 out of 55 votos. média: 4,80 out of 5

28/09/2020

Prasenjit Basu

Trump is not the Cause but an Effect of De-Globalization: No magical trade rebound if he loses

Between 1946 and 2011, global trade volumes typically grew at least 1.5-times the pace of global GDP growth, except during…

Macro Internacional

Nenhum comentário | 3 votos. média: 5,00 out of 53 votos. média: 5,00 out of 53 votos. média: 5,00 out of 53 votos. média: 5,00 out of 53 votos. média: 5,00 out of 5

11/09/2020

Prasenjit Basu

What a Biden Presidency will mean for the Economy and Markets

The key impact of a Biden presidency will be an initial sell-off in US equities, given that Biden has pledged…

Nenhum comentário | 1 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 5

07/08/2020

Prasenjit Basu

China’s monetary insanity and its consequences: Global overcapacity and an investment drought

China’s money supply (M2) has expanded 45-fold in the past 24 years, the largest monetary expansion in human history. China’s…

Macro Internacional

Nenhum comentário | 1 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 51 voto. média: 5,00 out of 5

30/07/2020

Prasenjit Basu

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