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US upside surprise: Eye on the World 10/02/21

10/02/2021
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Emerging Markets Estados Unidos Estratégia Global Macro Internacional

Markets breather after recent strength, as distracting Pres. Trump impeachment started, but supportive key triumvirate of vaccines, stimulus, and earnings remain. Today see US inflation data and Fed Chair commentary. We focus on cyclical and intl. catch-up themes and see markets well-supported.

HOT TOPICS looks at drivers of US building growth surprise, underpinning our continued overweight, international catch up not US rotation, and USD resilience. Drivers are 1) c10%/GDP more fiscal stimulus, 2) another near-historic earnings ‘beat’ in Q4, and 3) US’ world-leading vaccine rollout.

16-page daily includes: Market recap and What to watch; Hot Topic analysis; Country and Sector allocation eye; Key views; US and global performance, valuation, earnings, and macro forecasts; and report Library.

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