Resumo do Relatório
TPW Advisory Monthly: Market Speed
(1 votes, average: 5,00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The speed at which market narratives have changed together with the speed at which markets are discounting those changes helps one understand the cross asset sell off that was the 1st H of 2022.
As we think about the 2ndH we introduce Market Speed: the speed at which financial markets discount new narratives about the future. This new moniker joins: Covid Speed, Climate Speed and Conflict Speed in our speed lexicon.
Market speed is exacerbated by what Columbia Univ. history prof Adam Tooze calls a “polycrisis”, a multi faceted crisis born out of many smaller crises that few understand or can navigate. What the BIS calls “a combination of inflationary and recessionary forces that together with financial stability risks is historically unprecented”.
Such an environment drives investor apathy and illiquidity across assets thus exacerbating price volatility.
In addition to the speed of narrative shifts and market pricing we remain focused on what comes next: inflation, recession, stagflation? We expect inflation to soften & global growth to stabilize as the US slows and China recovers.
Our medium term view of a new, new world of high nominal growth led by a global cap ex boom & surging productivity to cope with the 3Cs of: Covid, Climate & Conflict remains intact. As such so does our Asset Allocation.
Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
Aviso legal
DISCLAIMER: This research report was prepared and distributed by the signatory Analyst for the original recipient only, pursuant to all the requirements defined in CVM Resolution N.20/21, with a view to providing information that may assist investors to make their own investment decisions, not representing any type of offer of or request for the purchase and/or sale of any product. Neither the Analysts nor OHMRESEARCH are responsible for the investment decisions and financial strategies, which should ultimately be made by the readers of the report. The products shown in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. Before any investment decision, investors should perform a suitability process with a reliable broker-dealer and confirm that the products presented are suitable for their investor profile. The profitability of financial products may fluctuate, and their price or value may increase or decrease in a short period of time. Previous results do not necessarily indicate future results. The reported profitability is stated before taxes. The information contained in this material is based on simulations and actual results may be significantly different.
The signatory of this report states that the recommendations reflect only his/her personal opinions and analyses, which have been produced entirely independently, and that OHMRESEARCH does not manage this content in any way. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without previous notice as a result of changes in market conditions. The Analyst responsible for the content of this report and for complying with CVM Resolution N. 20/21 is indicated above, and if more than one Analyst is indicated in the report, the analyst in charge will be the first accredited analyst to be mentioned in the report. The analysts registered with OHMRESEARCH must comply with all the rules defined in the Code of Conduct of the Association of Capital Markets Investment Analysts and Professionals (APIMEC) for Securities Analysts and the Policy of Conduct of Securities Analysts. Pursuant to article 21 of Resolution CVM N. 20/21, if an Analyst is in a situation that may affect the impartiality of the report or that may qualify as a conflict of interest, this should be reported in the “Conflicts of Interest” field herein.
The content of this report is the property of the signatory Analyst only, and may not be copied, reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, for/to third parties, without a previous written authorization from the Analyst. All information used in this document was obtained in public information from sources believed to be reliable. While all reasonable measures have been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not uncertain or misleading at the time of its posting, the Analyst is not accountable for the accuracy of the information shown in the report.
For further information, please refer to CVM Resolution nº 20 of 2021 and the APIMEC Code of Conduct for Securities Analysts. This report is intended only for the OHMRESEARCH subscriber that acquired it. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of the report or of any part hereof, in any way, may result in civil and criminal penalties, including the obligation to redress any and all losses and damages, in accordance with Law No. 9610/98 and other applicable legislation.
