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TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Why Be Bearish?

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Estratégia Global Geopolitica Macroeconomia

Another week of one step forward, two steps back with ample opportunity to get chopped up. No surprise given the history of post options expiry week (weak). It’s a great time to let the market tell one what is happening rather than try to impose one’s POV.


Having said that I do wonder why be bearish – everyone else is, starting with the major banks. I know well that being bearish makes one sound smart & I get that there are all sorts of reasons to trot out: Delta, political risk, stock valuation, TINA, seasonality, Fed taper, fiscal cliff, and of course the big kahuna: Evergrande – world’s biggest property debtor about to go under, dragging down pretty much everything with it.


But isn’t all that already known and thus in the price? Shouldn’t the real question be not when will we have a correction but rather how much longer will the correction last? While plenty talk about how long it has been since SPY had a 10% pullback Schwab makes the very useful point that 86% of SPY constituents have ALREADY had a 10% pullback.


To declare an interest, TPW Advisory is bullish not bearish. This week’s action increases our conviction in our previously expressed view that we are setting up for a performance chase into YE, led by underperforming hedge funds and focused on Cyclical/Value, Small Caps in the US and our OW non US DM, especially Japan, our recent adds to Asian/European EMs and Commodities, esp. energy and metals.


There is a ton to cover; as this is a Musings we will simply scratch the surface but fear not, the Monthly comes next week. As an aside, over the past week we have been very fortunate to be able to lean on a number of folks inside China and out who are the true China experts – a big shout to all – you know who you are! It’s been a real time demonstration of the TPWA network, built over the past 30+ years.


For now we can look at a few things that suggest the Evergrande story is, as former MS colleague Jordi Visser has noted, a misdirection – in that its reinforcing the growth slowdown, China implosion, story at a time when the opposite is unfolding around the globe.

Jay Pelosky

Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
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