Resumo do Relatório
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: What a Difference a Week Makes
(1 votes, average: 5,00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...
Remember last week? You know, the S&P’s worst week in 4 months, the week the FOMC messed with everyone, the bond market got agita, the $ rocked and Commodities imploded?
You do – good – well now you can forget it. Because THIS week we had new ATHs in S&P & Nasdaq, Fed speak got back on FAIT track, the 10 yr. UST didn’t move and Commodities snapped back to life like my hydrangeas after I water them.
Cross asset positioning is cleaner, sentiment is better and the VIX is back under 17. Dare I say “pothole”?
Last week I worried about others worrying about dot plots; I worried about how a Fed policy mistake could make my Bear Case more likely. This week, I forgot about the dot plots (useless) and thought about Joe Biden as a transformational President. If history does indeed grant him that moniker it will be in large part be because of his ability to work the levers of Govt as befitting a guy with 40 + yrs. of experience.
Now much still needs to be done – neither track is a straight shot – the House is in session for 9 days between now and post Labor Day, Senate for 16 (doing the peoples work doesn’t seem to mean working during the DC summer) but if both get done the chances of the Democrats maintaining control in the mid-terms goes up, the likelihood of a sharp US growth slowdown goes down and we can continue on our merry way.
That merry way remains a global tour here at TPWA as a staggered reopening gives way to a synchronized global economic expansion (IHS Markit notes global GDP gets back to pre-Covid peak this Q & begins expansion in 2H with Q/Q global GDP growth going from 2% in Q1 21 to 6-7% Q/Q growth in 2H 21).
On the equity front, I expect the laggards to become leaders and remain focused on Latin America in EM and Japan in DM equity. Latin America leads the way – I know you don’t hear that often but yes – leads the way – in inoculating itself against a Fed policy mistake as Mexico joins Brazil in raising rates – guess what – their FX rose and so did their equities. A surging CA surplus underpins Brazil’s Real rally under 5 to the USD on its way to 4.5 or below. This week was actually the 1st in 4 months that EMFX rose every day… $ strength is soooo last week.
Flat ytd, Japanese equity is a true laggard (after rising over 20% in late 2020) but the Japanese narrative is changing in real time – gone are the vaccination woes, replaced by 1M shots pd, the tough lockdowns are now being eased, the Olympic worries are soon to be replaced by TV shots of sun lit track and field events as the world’s best take the stage. Japan is also the last major economy with its Composite PMI under 50 – the EU equity rally this yr. taught us to buy that sub 50 and ride it up.
Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
Aviso legal
DISCLAIMER: This research report was prepared and distributed by the signatory Analyst for the original recipient only, pursuant to all the requirements defined in CVM Resolution N.20/21, with a view to providing information that may assist investors to make their own investment decisions, not representing any type of offer of or request for the purchase and/or sale of any product. Neither the Analysts nor OHMRESEARCH are responsible for the investment decisions and financial strategies, which should ultimately be made by the readers of the report. The products shown in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. Before any investment decision, investors should perform a suitability process with a reliable broker-dealer and confirm that the products presented are suitable for their investor profile. The profitability of financial products may fluctuate, and their price or value may increase or decrease in a short period of time. Previous results do not necessarily indicate future results. The reported profitability is stated before taxes. The information contained in this material is based on simulations and actual results may be significantly different.
The signatory of this report states that the recommendations reflect only his/her personal opinions and analyses, which have been produced entirely independently, and that OHMRESEARCH does not manage this content in any way. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without previous notice as a result of changes in market conditions. The Analyst responsible for the content of this report and for complying with CVM Resolution N. 20/21 is indicated above, and if more than one Analyst is indicated in the report, the analyst in charge will be the first accredited analyst to be mentioned in the report. The analysts registered with OHMRESEARCH must comply with all the rules defined in the Code of Conduct of the Association of Capital Markets Investment Analysts and Professionals (APIMEC) for Securities Analysts and the Policy of Conduct of Securities Analysts. Pursuant to article 21 of Resolution CVM N. 20/21, if an Analyst is in a situation that may affect the impartiality of the report or that may qualify as a conflict of interest, this should be reported in the “Conflicts of Interest” field herein.
The content of this report is the property of the signatory Analyst only, and may not be copied, reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, for/to third parties, without a previous written authorization from the Analyst. All information used in this document was obtained in public information from sources believed to be reliable. While all reasonable measures have been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not uncertain or misleading at the time of its posting, the Analyst is not accountable for the accuracy of the information shown in the report.
For further information, please refer to CVM Resolution nº 20 of 2021 and the APIMEC Code of Conduct for Securities Analysts. This report is intended only for the OHMRESEARCH subscriber that acquired it. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of the report or of any part hereof, in any way, may result in civil and criminal penalties, including the obligation to redress any and all losses and damages, in accordance with Law No. 9610/98 and other applicable legislation.
