Resumo do Relatório
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: US Political Brand Value vs Financial Asset Value
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Policies that raise the value of the US political brand, especially around issues of fairness and equality, via changes in the tax structure for both Corporates & wealthy individuals, may have the opposite effect on US financial asset values.
Governments need new revenue sources while corporates & the wealthy have done V well over the past decade.
The Biden Climate Summit and Capital Gains tax plan resonate in several ways. While the Summit did not produce a broad Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) it did feature many countries committing to bigger emission cuts suggesting that the Covid Speed model will be in full bloom in regards to climate between now and 2030.
Investing thematically is the best way to leverage this outcome and generate alpha. One has several options to avoid that alpha being taxed away.
One impact of this shift in political and financial asset values is to reinforce the move to non US equity markets. I have long highlighted the non US DM but now note some EM are starting to get on the radar screen. Brazil’s Real just broke through an important level while the Mexican Peso did the same – EMFX has been up 8 of the past 10 sessions and four weeks in a row.
I do not expect a big equity selloff and see recent bouts of weakness as reflecting the “pothole” nature of markets I have referenced before – given the changing tax structure being able to stay invested + leveraging the LT nature of thematic investing will become more and more important.
Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
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