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TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Got Game?
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The gamification of Wall St is not a new idea, at least not since Robinhood burst on to the scene last Spring. But what about the gamification of the economy?
It strikes me that’s one of this year’s lessons, one taken from the price action spreading from financial markets to commodities and on to power markets & the real economy. Its even spread into world trade via the pricing of shipping containers.
What do I mean by gamification? Basically the rise of spot markets that are being used by speculators to drive prices that are then taken as signals by media and some economists to forecast things like inflation, stagflation and the “Shortage Economy” when really its just speculative capital that has gamed out the spot markets, sending prices skyward before taking their profits and moving on. Lumber, iron ore were early indicators; more recently its been uranium, Nat gas & coal.
The “meme” stocks started us off last Spring but now its energy prices leading to Govt policy action; its shipping container prices rising 5x before halving in the space of two weeks as profits are taken while the 5 pm news shows talk about Scrooge & Shortages taking away the Holiday gift season.
No worries, right – well yeah, until one realizes the whole world is extrapolating from the violence of the price action to assume shortages exist and will continue to exist for months if not quarters, potentially leading to policy mistakes and a feedback loop into the real economy.
I think this will prove quite misleading & expect the real economy to respond much more quickly than is currently expected – so watch out players. It does suggest that a smart Fed will be a patient Fed; something to muse over this weekend.
The bulk of the following comments come straight from my notes from yesterday’s BTV hit on The Open show. While technical difficulties meant only a short phone hit these notes are for the full show.
Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
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