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TPW Advisory August Monthly: Coincidence? I Hope Not

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Estados Unidos Estratégia Global Geopolitica Macro Internacional

Vacation was great, staying at The Middle Way & featuring a visit from a bear – a real live, black bear (check out the 23 charts/tables).


Recession call & Fed pivot talk premature post July jobs #; we continue to focus on the positive impact of a high nominal growth regime.


The earnings bridge  we wrote about two weeks ago is intact with Q2 US and EU EPS up 10% and 22% Y/Y respectively while sales growth is running at 15% and 36%. Hard to see stocks down with these types of reports.


3 Tri Polar World keys for 2nd H: how fast US inflation rolls over; the path of European energy prices and the potential for China to learn to live with Covid.


We remain constructive on risk assets looking out to YE; near term markets have moved a lot, a period of digestion would be healthy.

Jay Pelosky

Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA

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