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The debt constraint: Eye on the World 02/03/21
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S&P 500 surged yesterday, led by tech, on stabilizing bond yields. Concerns may remain but measured yield increase historically equity positive. We see a strong cyclical catch-up, and IT resilience.
HOT TOPICS Global debt continues to soar, to record 350%/GDP, putting focus on sensitivity to rise in funding cost. +50bps equal to 2%/GDP. Focus on well controlled contagion channels incl. financial conditions, credit spreads, and denominator with rising GDP and EPS outlook.
16-page daily includes: Market recap and What to watch; Hot Topic analysis; Country and Sector allocation eye; Key views; US and global performance, valuation, earnings, and macro forecasts; and report Library. See latest views on yesterday’ Bloomberg The Close (from ’49:25).
