Resumo do Relatório

Friday Musings: Snow Days Don’t Mean No Work Days

19/02/2021
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Commodities Estratégia Global Investimentos Temáticos Macro Internacional Multiativos Globais

Lots to discuss amidst the snow days and holidays here in the States. Our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) keeps us on point.

Health: Harsh lockdowns suggest Europe offers most upside to successful vaccinations. Rising supply means focus shifts to boosting demand – a high class problem.

Economics: Better than expected Econ data across the globe underpins rising stock prices. Note strong EU manufacturing and surging intra Asian trade ( Japan January exports to China + 37% Y/Y). Strong retail sales in both US ( +5% y/y) and China ( Lunar Holidays sales + 30% y/y) suggest production – consumption split at its wides.

Politics: Biden Admin continues to move fast across both domestic and foreign policy. Expect 1st House vote on the $1.9T Rescue Plan to come a week from today and Senate passage in early March.

Policy: EU Recovery Fund opens for business this week – Europe needs to avoid big job losses and bankruptcies once it reopens. Texas white out sets stage for Biden Climate Plan.

Markets: Oil reacts V well to Saudi and Iran news; Dr. Copper new highs coupled with A$/Y cross break out confirm Commodity bull market. The higher rates are a good thing case from last week continues to resonate – worst start for Barclays Global Agg index in years and yet ACWI is up 5% ytd. On thematic side note reopening trade working – JETS anyone? Institutional adoption continues to push Crypto higher.

Enjoy the BTV clip and catch Roberto and I Monday afternoon for our Biweekly Musings w Jay!

From snowy NYC – TGIF!

Jay Pelosky

Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA

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