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Friday Musings: Mr. Value, Meet Mr. Momentum
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Jay Powell has been very clear – the Fed is now data dependent which is something we should celebrate – data targets can now act as stabilizers, no more guess work.
In terms of inflation risk, one wonders about the velocity of money – it looks like something the cat dragged in – dead as a doornail.
This all ties together in the 60-40, risk parity, balanced fund space where duration is at the 2nd highest level in the past 50 years. This space has taken in tons of $ in the past decade – that game is over – follow the $.
In Commodity land its worth noting how the oil market fell into a “pothole”; it should be expected, after all, XLE ( oil majors) was up 40% YTD… ytd.
As all this unfolds Mr. Value is about to meet Mr. Momentum as momentum migrates away from Growth to Value. When multiple market disciplines line up together its usually a signal to invest in size. Here we have the fundamental “Tech Kryptonite” argument, a technical argument and the Quant argument all lining up in favor of Value. This is one to watch – the amount of money in Growth/Momentum investing over the past decade was enormous – follow the money.
Jay Pelosky
Estrategista Global - TPW Advisory
Nova York, EUA
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