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Election day scenarios: Eye on the World 03/11/20
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Markets moved higher yesterday anticipating eventual end to US election uncertainty as country goes to polls today and bolstered by further strong manufacturing data.
HOT TOPICS see’s US election as important ‘clearing’ event, allowing a refocus on strong 2021 growth recovery. ‘Blue wave’ Biden victory most bullish, with fiscal stimulus more than offsetting phased tax increases. Contested election most negative, though partly priced. Sector impacts should not be overdone – see energy and financials post 2016 – whilst International likely to benefit, led by EM.
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