“As the story goes, one day in 1929, Joe Kennedy is getting his shoes shined. The boy began to give stock tips as he polished Kennedy’s oxfords. In that moment, it struck Joe that he needed to leave the market.”
- Since the lows of March, everything “high beta” has been on overdrive and US valuations are increasingly looking lofty on the back of poor fundamentals thanks to the COVID-19 onslaught. Rally has been epic in areas such as Russell 2000
- Cracks in in the market are appearing – From Hertz retail mania, to accounting fraud with Wirecard which is typical of late cycle events, and now this:New Leveraged ETFs Own Leveraged Funds That Own Leveraged Companies
- We believe the market is at a critical juncture. It’s either more up or we see a break. It is hard yet to see a catalyst apart from the usual “exogenous geopolitical risk” given the huge amount of liquidity sloshing around.
- Treasury balance at Fed is +1trln. so the correction in stocks could come a bit later we think, maybe October in conjunction to a potential COVID-19 “second wave”.
MARTIN TIXER
Crédito Corporativo, Crédito Soberano, Macro Internacional
Global – Strategist
Martin Tixier is a specialist concentrating on macroeconomic trends in general, and credit primarily in the UK.
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